This is a very simple article, that shows some plots with an convergence indicator of the world. It starts with the 90% percentile of wealth measured in 2025 GDP per capita and reduces that measure in 10% percentile steps to derive at switching points. The regions that are not that wealthy are measured to converge, if they have a structural growth rate in 2015-2025 that is higher than median structural growth rate over all 10% wealthiest countries.
Preword: Are we Concurents or Cooperating in World Economy
In an economic model for the world we distiguish riccardo and non riccardo goods. Non riccardo goods are world market leading products, were people don’t want to buy products with less quality if they have budgets to buy the market leader. In such products companies worldwide have sharp concurency situations with the market leader and innovator becoming a monopolist with high rents. Such products are quite seldom, because usual goods with less performance or quality do their job as well. Often we also are not facing coutries internationally that are capable to purchase market leading products. That is why most of the products in the end a riccardo goods. A riccardo good is a good, that is purchased and is the currency unions export product it can produce with it capabilities the best but does not need to be an world market leading product but only good enough to have customers. Please consult educations on Riccardo to understand better. In the end we can talk about a mostly cooperative world situation but eventually face some goods were we seriously need the performance as a customer or institution consuming such a good. Often production machines may are market leading products, people want but also with that we have lots of markets for not market leading but functioning production machines. Another position is about a certain amount of products and services, that determine either a gloabl level of welath in the end or we face national egoismsm. I’m currently not capabale to understand that quite reasonable argument in whole.
100%-percentile
The wealthy nations are USA, Finland, Sweden, Grönland, Saudi Arabia and some tax heavens. USA is with protectionism, Finland and Sweden are well known for their good education and Saudi Arabia has higher Demands for Oil and other fossile energy ressources.
Central Europe, Italy and Greece are not converging: do we lack education or technologies? Same is with Russia and Canada. Australia is converging and Great Britan too. We discuss some inefficencies due to lacking qualifications in lots of organisations as well as boycotts of innovations due to expected unemployments. While people are scared of unemployments theory sugests better situations for all and even the person that should find a new, better job.
90%-percentile
Europe is quite wealthy and East Europe is converging as well as Portugal. Italy is quite wealthy, but Greece is not and not converging. Did we oversee something with Greece? Canada and Australia are also quite wealthy. In Greece we often talk about issues with wage contracting to high and following issues in a currency union with unemployments. Out of a more European perspective the more productive nations face issues with low key interest rates because of Greece, but Greece also faces to high key interest rates. People often talk about a own currency for the Greece to be the better solution for Greece and others.
80%-percentile
Europe is gotten wealthier even in east. East Europe is comparable to Russia. Turkey is quite wealthy and converging. Ukraine is not that wealthy and not converging, while Belarus is converging and not that wealthy.
70%-percentile
China (converging) got wealthier as well as Chile (converging) and Argentinien, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivien but they are not converging. Oman has gotten wealthier but is not converging. In Chile we talk about physical water scarcity – as far as I get it – in the hills, while one lives next to the sea.
China has high demographic stress due to the one child policy and insurances for medical care are even more important than social security insurence systems. Export oriented growth in China is – as far as I can remember – lacking a demographical issue to lack employees to further incentivice to companies to produce in China for exports and some huger amounts of money that flows into the central bank pegs can be eased to softly reduce pegs and invest money in other domains being more dependent on inner state economy than exports. As far as I remember my analysises, the emmigration also is about people, that suffer from unemployments. It is somehow paradox, but export oriented growth has gotten a business, that is more with other regions of the world now?
60%-percentile
Brasilia, Kolumbia and Mexico are wealthier but not converging. Iran, Turkmenistan got wealthier but are not converging. Irak and Syrien got wealthier and are converging. In middle east we talk about upcoming phsical water scarcity. People discuss, that organisation of the civil society is lacking in Latin America, where we also have diverse Interests under citizens not organized with state and private domains for example in land usage, which is about forrest clearencesnot sustainable. In Iran and sourroundings people talk about underestimization of cooperation and solutions avoiding wars and physical stress: they talk about an „aggression issue“.
50%-percentile
By know we got the richest half of the world with some North Afrika and some South Afrika countries and the converging Malaysia, Indonesien and Papua-Neuginea.
I`’m currently thinking about city developments in our history, that were coupled to trade and banks, that secured the trade. I think it is reasonable to think about the poorer regions with some requirement for city developments that are trading with each other and secure transportation and money flows with banks. I’m currently starting to do research on that topic. Very basic requirements to build wealth and gain incentives to innovate and build solutions with educations is the security of property rights issue.
We first need peace, security and basic supplies, than we need currencies or digital currencies, taxes and some staate, that builds via communication and education its own and the societies educated personell and develops the private and public institutions with that personell building democracy developments. In such situations, we face lots of cultural issues, that are for example about believes, missing educations, criminalities and corruption, poverty, lacking time, and lacking trust in authorities. People talk about an Institution that is Psychiatries and lots of communication technologies that are about developing the culture and people together in an educational system and society spiral. We also face such issues in developed countries to reproduce our societies and know-how and are often intensivly educated, communicating, cooperating and learning in such institutions from older people working there.
Central Institutions connected to property rights are central banks, banks, police, legislativ and judicative institutions, tax authorities and educational institutions with its educated and qualified personell. Such institutions also need further services, like building their infrastructures or it-equipments. Today we face some special technologies like photovoltaik allowing decentral production of electricity, internet and it-devices, that did not exist in our history.
Someone from South Afrika told me – as far as I’m informed – that with the development of mobile Internet together with Smartphones and payments via Smartphones and Internet, the state could demand taxes and with building state and having secure payments the nation started to grow and converge.
40%-percentile
Really the poorer half of the world people live close to the äquator and is mainly located in Africa and Middle East.
30%-percentile
Afghanistan, Central Africa and Neuginuea are even poorer. We talk in such regions about economical water scarcity, that is currently expected to be solvable in an economic sense. Pakistan is converging but quite poor region.
20%-percentile
The poorest countries are: Republic of Congo, Tschad and Sudan, Niger, Burkina Faso (converging), Guinea, Malawi, Mosambik (converging) and Madagaskar as well as Jemen and Afghanistan.
Here the same as a GIF
In whole we see lots of missing convergency and we expect capital to invest into educated manpower, mainly if property rights and infrastructures and political stability as well as financial risks are well and get closer to technology boarders with educations.
We still have lots of convergency and a question with sustainability and reduction of nature pollutions.
Clustering with Nine Clusters for Convergency Indicator, Structural Growth Rate and GDP per Capita in PPP
Clustering for GDP per Capita in Purchasing Power Parity and Delta to Median Structural Growth Rate of the Richest 10 % in GDP per Capita measured in Purchasing Power Parity
Clustering for Splitted Data of Converging or Not-Converging with 5 and 7 Clusters According to Richest 10% of GDP per Capita in Purchasing Power Parity with Data on Structural Growth Rates Delta to its Median and GDP per Capita
The not converging reagions can be splitted in industial countries and the poor countries (up to 18.000 $ a year). Usually we talk about convergency trap situations with the poor countries, while the industrial nations have other issues and often are capable to organize themselves to find solutions.